2016 Predictions: Shifting Priorities
Boomers Pass the Baton to Millennials
We have seen "Peak Boomers"; their asset accumulation and cultural influence will wane from here, as the millennials begin to assert themselves. 2016 will be the start of the confusion as the old priorities of health care, retirement, quality of life in place, etc. start to fight with the new priorities of fitness, style, access to opportunity and work, participation in property and wealth, and environment.
In 2016, we'll start to read about how Silicon Valley is getting serious competition from mobilized millennials who categorise entrepreneur leadership in the same class of "blech" as large corporate leadership. The Valley will find both types of capital flows - money and minds - flowing away from them.
Bitcoin & BlockChains
In 2016 Bitcoin gets increasingly politicized because the Chinese and Europeans dominate the hash network. But Bitcoin gets on with its job, regardless.
Traditional banking will keep driving blockchain projects because it allows them to get away from centralised regulators and provide cover for attacking bitcoin.
Apple faces its destiny in 2016. It either produces something that proves it has Steve Jobs in its DNA, or the market concludes Steve Jobs is gone for good. Either way, the market will re-rate up or re-rate down, but it won't do nothing. There will be plenty of gloss and noise; but I will be listening to the market.
Microsoft Continuum is the next Surface; it's actually really sensible and useful and soon to be copied by Apple.
In 2016, Microsoft will continue to get more mind space in Azure, Surface, and VR.
Virtual Reality continues to grow in 2016 and MS and Google continue to drive the pack.
- Google continues on its path of being like the US govt; constantly doing provocative and aggressive projects while everyone continues to assumes it's too large and powerful to stop.
- Facebook starts to show hints of its mortality.
There is a very strong chance that the depression that was caused by the Global Financial Collapse starts to assert itself on spent regulators in 2016. My hunch is that this is the case; in which case credit will be repriced towards its real price. Therefore:
- Apple will struggle to hold the "luxury is best" line as premium will no longer appear free and people will become price conscious.
- Huwaei and Xiaomi will grow in the the US market as Apple quality, not Apple price.
- Apple may produce a cost-conscious version of the iPhone, but not made of plastic.
- The PC market will merge with the tablet market, but at the low end.
- The tablet market at the top end will become single purpose and more expensive; expect more tablet sale declines.
- ARM desktop relacements and high end servers will start to take off, especially for large corporates where cloud lock in and jurisdiction matters start to become management issues.